DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00220.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84859949670
论文题名: Twenty-first-century arctic climate change in CCSM4
作者: Vavrus S.J. ; Holland M.M. ; Jahn A. ; Bailey D.A. ; Blazey B.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 8 起始页码: 2696
结束页码: 2710
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Air temperature
; Anthropogenic effects
; Arctic
; Arctic climate
; Arctic climate change
; Arctic ocean
; Climate variability
; Close coupling
; Coastal erosion
; Community climate system model
; Ensemble members
; General circulation model
; Internal variability
; Radiative forcings
; Sea level pressure
; Wave activity
; Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Computer simulation
; Global warming
; Sea ice
; Sea level
; Storms
; Climate models
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; cloud cover
; general circulation model
; global warming
; greenhouse effect
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea ice
; sea level pressure
; twenty first century
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: The authors summarize the twenty-first-century Arctic climate simulated by NCAR's Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). Under a strong radiative forcing scenario, the model simulates a much warmer, wetter, cloudier, and stormier Arctic climate with considerably less sea ice and a fresher Arctic Ocean. The high correlation among the variables composing these changes-temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, sea level pressure (SLP), and ice concentration-suggests that their close coupling collectively represents a fingerprint of Arctic climate change. Although the projected changes in CCSM4 are generally consistent with those in other GCMs, several noteworthy features are identified. Despite more global warming in CCSM4, Arctic changes are generally less than under comparable greenhouse forcing in CCSM3, as represented by Arctic amplification (16% weaker) and the date of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean (20 years later). Autumn is the season of the most pronounced Arctic climate change among all the primary variables. The changes are very similar across the five ensemble members, although SLP displays the largest internal variability. The SLP response exhibits a significant trend toward stronger extreme Arctic cyclones, implying greater wave activity that would promote coastal erosion. Based on a commonly used definition of the Arctic (the area encompassing the 10°C July air temperature isotherm), the region shrinks by about 40% during the twenty-first century, in conjunction with a nearly 10-K warming trend poleward of 70°N. Despite this pronounced long-term warming, CCSM4 simulates a hiatus in the secular Arctic climate trends during a decade-long stretch in the 2040s and to a lesser extent in the 2090s. These pauses occur despite averaging over five ensemble members and are remarkable because they happen under the most extreme greenhouseforcing scenario and in the most climatically sensitive region of the world. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52466
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Vavrus S.J.,Holland M.M.,Jahn A.,et al. Twenty-first-century arctic climate change in CCSM4[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(8)