DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00211.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84858255766
论文题名: Evaluating modeled intra- to multidecadal climate variability using running mann-whitney Z statistics
作者: Mauget S.A. ; Cordero E.C. ; Brown P.T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 5 起始页码: 1570
结束页码: 1586
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Analysis method
; Climate forecasting
; Climate regime
; Climate variability
; Climate variation
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Dominant mode
; Error metrices
; Future models
; Graphic analysis
; Grid location
; Interdecadal variability
; Mann-Whitney
; Model comparison
; Model errors
; Model simulation
; Principal component
; Response patterns
; Statistical techniques
; Temperature cycles
; Time windows
; U-statistics
; Warm temperatures
; Z value
; Z-statistics
; Climatology
; Computer simulation
; Plasma diagnostics
; Principal component analysis
; Time series
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; computer simulation
; decadal variation
; error analysis
; principal component analysis
英文摘要: An analysis method previously used to detect observed intra- to multidecadal (IMD) climate regimes was adapted to compare observed and modeled IMD climate variations. Pending the availability of the more appropriate phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) simulations, the method is demonstrated using CMIP-3 model simulations. Although the CMIP-3 experimental design will almost certainly prevent these model runs from reproducing features of historical IMD climate variability, these simulations allow for the demonstration of the method and illustrate how the models and observations disagree. This method samples a time series's data rankings over moving time windows, converts those ranking sets to a Mann-Whitney U statistic, and then normalizes the U statistic into a Z statistic. By detecting optimally significant IMD ranking regimes of arbitrary onset and varying duration, this process generates time series of Z values that are an adaptively low-passed and normalized transformation of the original time series. Principal component (PC) analysis of the Z series derived from observed annual temperatures at 92 U.S. grid locations during 1919-2008 shows two dominant modes: a PC1 mode with cool temperatures before the late 1960s and warm temperatures after the mid-1980s, and a PC2 mode indicating a multidecadal temperature cycle over the Southeast. Using a graphic analysis of a Z error metric that compares modeled and observed Z series, the three CMIP-3 model simulations tested here are shown to reproduce the PC1 mode but not the PC2 mode. By providing a way to compare grid-level IMD climate response patterns in observed and modeled data, this method can play a useful diagnostic role in future model development and decadal climate forecasting. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52512
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Lubbock, TX, United States; Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mauget S.A.,Cordero E.C.,Brown P.T.. Evaluating modeled intra- to multidecadal climate variability using running mann-whitney Z statistics[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(5)