DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00586.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84858606779
论文题名: Forecast skill of the South American monsoon system
作者: Jones C. ; Carvalho L.M.V. ; Liebmann B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 6 起始页码: 1883
结束页码: 1889
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate forecasts
; Climatic features
; Empirical Orthogonal Function
; Hindcasts
; Monsoon system
; Monsoons
; National centers for environmental predictions
; Precipitation anomalies
; Probabilistic forecasts
; Probability forecasts/models/distribution
; Root-mean square errors
; Sams
; Seasonal changes
; Seasonal cycle
; Seasonality
; South America
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Forecasting
; empirical analysis
; error analysis
; hindcasting
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; probability
; seasonality
; weather forecasting
; South America
英文摘要: The South American monsoon system (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America and is characterized by pronounced seasonality in precipitation. This study uses the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System, reforecasts version 2 (CFSRv2), to investigate the skill of probabilistic forecasts of onset and demise dates, duration, and amplitude of SAMS during 1982-2009. A simple index based on the empirical orthogonal function of precipitation anomalies is employed to characterize onsets, demises, durations, and amplitudes of SAMS. The CFSv2 model has useful skill to forecast seasonal changes in SAMS. Probabilistic forecasts of onset and demise dates have 16.5% and 43.3% improvements, respectively, over climatological forecasts. Verification of hindcasts of durations and amplitudes of SAMS shows relatively small biases and root-mean-square errors. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52531
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jones C.,Carvalho L.M.V.,Liebmann B.. Forecast skill of the South American monsoon system[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(6)