DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00227.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84858611274
论文题名: Systematic estimates of initial-value decadal predictability for six AOGCMs
作者: Branstator G. ; Teng H. ; Meehl G.A. ; Kimoto M. ; Knight J.R. ; Latif M. ; Rosati A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 6 起始页码: 1827
结束页码: 1846
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmosphere ocean general circulation models
; Control integration
; Control trajectory
; External conditions
; Forecast distribution
; Initial state
; Key factors
; Multivariate linear regressions
; North Atlantic
; North Pacific
; Time invariants
; Climatology
; Mathematical models
; Climate control
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; estimation method
; multivariate analysis
; oceanic general circulation model
; regression analysis
; signal processing
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Initial-value predictability measures the degree to which the initial state can influence predictions. In this paper, the initial-value predictability of six atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in the North Pacific and North Atlantic is quantified and contrasted by analyzing long control integrations with time invariant external conditions. Through the application of analog and multivariate linear regression methodologies, average predictability properties are estimated for forecasts initiated from every state on the control trajectories. For basinwide measures of predictability, the influence of the initial state tends to last for roughly a decade in both basins, but this limit varies widely among the models, especially in the North Atlantic. Within each basin, predictability varies regionally by as much as a factor of 10 for a given model, and the locations of highest predictability are different for each model. Model-to-model variations in predictability are also seen in the behavior of prominent intrinsic basin modes. Predictability is primarily determined by the mean of forecast distributions rather than the spread about the mean. Horizontal propagation plays a large role in the evolution of these signals and is therefore a key factor in differentiating the predictability of the variousmodels. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52537
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Branstator G.,Teng H.,Meehl G.A.,et al. Systematic estimates of initial-value decadal predictability for six AOGCMs[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(6)