DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05024.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84856971561
论文题名: A statistical adjustment of regional climate model outputs to local scales: Application to Platja de Palma, Spain
作者: Amengual A. ; Homar V. ; Romero R. ; Alonso S. ; Ramis C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 3 起始页码: 939
结束页码: 957
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Annual mean
; Climate projection
; Cloud cover
; Cumulative distribution function
; Daily rainfall
; Europe
; Extreme rainfall
; Local adaptation
; Local scale
; Maximum temperature
; Mediterranean sea
; Regional climate models
; Societal impacts
; Statistical techniques
; Time slice
; Wind speed
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Climate change
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; cloud cover
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; regional climate
; relative humidity
; socioeconomic impact
; statistical analysis
; wind velocity
; Mediterranean Sea
; Spain
英文摘要: Projections of climate change effects for the System of Platja de Palma (SPdP) are derived using a novel statistical technique. Socioeconomic activities developed in this settlement are very closely linked to its climate. Any planning for socioeconomic opportunities in the mid- and long term must take into account the possible effects of climate change. To this aim, daily observed series of minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, relative humidity, cloud cover, and wind speed have been analyzed. For the climate projections, daily data generated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) have been used. To properly use RCM data at local scale, a quantile-quantile adjustment has been applied to the simulated regional projections. The method is based on detecting changes in the cumulative distribution functions between the recent past and successive time slices of the simulated climate and applying these, after calibration, to the recent past (observed) series. Results show an overall improvement in reproducing the present climate baseline when using calibrated series instead of raw RCM outputs, although the correction does not result in such clear improvement when dealing with very extreme rainfalls. Next, the corrected series are analyzed to quantify the climate change signal. Anincrease of the annual means for temperatures together with a decrease for the remaining variables is projected throughout the twenty-first century. Increases in weak and intense daily rainfalls and in high extremes for daily maximum temperature can also be expected. With this information at hand, the experts planning the future of SPdP can respond more effectively to the problem of local adaptation to climate change. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52562
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Grup de Meteorologia, Departament de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca, Spain; Departament de Recerca en Canvi Global, Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avancxats, Palma de Mallorca, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Amengual A.,Homar V.,Romero R.,et al. A statistical adjustment of regional climate model outputs to local scales: Application to Platja de Palma, Spain[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(3)