DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI3934.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84856952506
论文题名: The impact of land surface and atmospheric initialization on seasonal forecasts with CCSM
作者: Paolino D.A. ; Kinter J.L. ; Kirtman B.P. ; Min D. ; Straus D.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 3 起始页码: 1007
结束页码: 1021
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Community climate system model
; Fully-coupled model
; Improved forecast
; Initial state
; Interannual variability
; Land surface
; National center for atmospheric researches
; Ocean state
; Proxy data
; Reanalysis
; Seasonal forecast models
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal forecasts
; Soil surfaces
; Surface temperatures
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Experiments
; Soil moisture
; Surface measurement
; Weather forecasting
; accuracy assessment
; climate modeling
; efficiency measurement
; experimental study
; moisture transfer
; observational method
; soil moisture
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: Series of forecast experiments for two seasons investigate the impact of specifying realistic initial states of the land in conjunction with the observed states of the ocean and atmosphere while using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3.0). Since direct soil moisture observations adequate for initialization of the land surface do not exist, this study considers proxy data. The authors are able to successfully initialize all components of the CCSM3.0 and produce a good representation of the mean land surface climate in the first season's forecast. In comparison with a previous set of forecast experiments that had initialized only the observed ocean state, there is firm evidence that this study produces a better representation of the interannual variability of the soil surface. The representation of soil moisture in the fully initialized seasonal forecasts as measured against the reanalysis is improved, due in part to the ability of the CCSM3.0 to persist large-scale anomalies present in the initial soil state. The improvement in the representation of the land surface, in conjunction with the atmospheric initialization, contributes to a skillful seasonal forecast of surface temperature. There is little evidence of an improved forecast of precipitation over land. Results from this study support the use of the CCSM, originally designed for use as a climate model, as a fully initialized seasonal forecast model. The authors suggest that initialization of the land surface state is crucial for skillful seasonal forecasts made with fully coupled models. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52567
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD, United States; University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States; George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Paolino D.A.,Kinter J.L.,Kirtman B.P.,et al. The impact of land surface and atmospheric initialization on seasonal forecasts with CCSM[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(3)