DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00125.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84863011110
论文题名: The role of air-sea interaction for prediction of Australian summer monsoon rainfall
作者: Hendon H.H. ; Lim E.-P. ; Liu G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 4 起始页码: 1278
结束页码: 1290
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Air sea interactions
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Australia
; Australian rainfall
; Coupled models
; FORECAST model
; Hindcasts
; Intrinsic property
; Monsoon onset
; Monsoons
; Northern Australia
; Ocean-atmosphere models
; PERFECT model
; Pre-monsoon
; Remote forcing
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal forecasts
; Seasonal mean rainfall
; Seasonality
; SST anomalies
; Summer monsoon
; Summer monsoon rainfall
; Surface winds
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Feedback
; Forecasting
; Nickel compounds
; Rain
; air-sea interaction
; El Nino
; hindcasting
; monsoon
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; summer
; surface wind
; temperature anomaly
; westerly
; Australia
英文摘要: Forecast skill for seasonal mean rainfall across northern Australia is lower during the summer monsoon than in the premonsoon transition season based on 25 years of hindcasts using the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) coupled model seasonal forecast system. The authors argue that this partly reflects an intrinsic property of the monsoonal system, whereby seasonally varying air-sea interaction in the seas around northern Australia promotes predictability in the premonsoon season and demotes predictability after monsoon onset. Trade easterlies during the premonsoon season support a positive feedback between surface winds, SST, and rainfall, which results in stronger and more persistent SST anomalies to the north of Australia that compliment the remote forcing of Australian rainfall from El Niño in the Pacific. After onset of the Australian summer monsoon, this local feedback is not supported in the monsoonal westerly regime, resulting in weaker SST anomalies to the north of Australia and with lower persistence than in the premonsoon season. Importantly, the seasonality of this air-sea interaction is captured in the POAMA forecast model. Furthermore, analysis of perfect model forecasts and forecasts generated by prescribing observed SST results in largely the same conclusion (i.e., significantly lower actual and potential forecast skill during the monsoon), thereby supporting the notion that air-sea interaction contributes to intrinsically lower predictability of rainfall during the monsoon. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52570
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Hendon H.H.,Lim E.-P.,Liu G.. The role of air-sea interaction for prediction of Australian summer monsoon rainfall[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(4)