DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00156.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84863062600
论文题名: Evidence for using lagged climate indices to forecast Australian seasonal rainfall
作者: Schepen A. ; Wang Q.J. ; Robertson D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 4 起始页码: 1230
结束页码: 1246
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Australia
; Probability forecasts/models/distribution
; Seasonal forecasting
; Statistical forecasting
; Statistical techniques
; Forecasting
; Rain
; Climate models
; Bayesian analysis
; climate prediction
; extratropical environment
; geostatistics
; numerical model
; probability
; rainfall
; regional climate
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
; Australia
; India
英文摘要: Lagged oceanic and atmospheric climate indices are potentially useful predictors of seasonal rainfall totals. A rigorous Bayesian joint probability modeling approach is applied to find the cross-validation predictive densities of gridded Australian seasonal rainfall totals using lagged climate indices as predictors over the period of 1950-2009. The evidence supporting the use of each climate index as a predictor of seasonal rainfall is quantified by the pseudo-Bayes factor based on cross-validation predictive densities. The evidence strongly supports the use of climate indices from the Pacific region with weaker, but positive, evidence for the use of climate indices from the Indian region and the extratropical region. The spatial structure and seasonal variation of the evidence for each climate index is mapped and compared. Spatially, the strongest supporting evidence is found for forecasting in northern and eastern Australia. Seasonally, the strongest evidence is found from August-October to November-January and the weakest evidence is found from March-May to May-July. In some regions and seasons, there is little evidence supporting the use of climate indices for forecasting seasonal rainfall. Climate indices derived from sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific region show stronger persistence in the relationship with Australian seasonal rainfall totals than climate indices derived from sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian region. Climate indices derived from atmospheric variables are also strongly supported, provided they represent the largescale circulation. Many climate indices are found to show similar supporting evidence for forecasting Australian seasonal rainfall, leading to the prospect of combining climate indices in multiple predictor models and/or model averaging. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52575
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; CSIRO Land and Water, Highett, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Schepen A.,Wang Q.J.,Robertson D.. Evidence for using lagged climate indices to forecast Australian seasonal rainfall[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(4)