globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00008.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84856957084
论文题名:
A bayesian ANOVA scheme for calculating climate anomalies, with applications to the instrumental temperature record
作者: Tingley M.P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期:2
起始页码: 777
结束页码: 791
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bayesian inference ; Bayesian methods ; Climate anomalies ; Climate research ; Climate variability ; Data sets ; Mean standard deviation ; Mean temperature ; Missing values ; Spatial moment ; Standard deviation ; Statistical techniques ; Temperature anomaly ; Temporal property ; Uncertainty intervals ; Bayesian networks ; Inference engines ; Temperature ; Time series ; Climatology ; Bayesian analysis ; climate change ; climate variation ; data set ; temperature anomaly
英文摘要: Climate datasets with both spatial and temporal components are often studied after removing from each time series a temporal mean calculated over a common reference interval, which is generally shorter than the overall length of the dataset. The use of a short reference interval affects the temporal properties of the variability across the records, by reducing the standard deviation within the reference interval and inflating it elsewhere. For an annually averaged version of the Climate Research Unit's (CRU) temperature anomaly product, the mean standard deviation is 0.67°C within the 1961-90 reference interval, and 0.81°C elsewhere. The calculation of anomalies can be interpreted in terms of a two-factor analysis of variance model. Within a Bayesian inference framework, any missing values are viewed as additional parameters, and the reference interval is specified as the full length of the dataset. This Bayesian scheme is used to re-express the CRU dataset as anomalies with respect to means calculated over the entire 1850-2009 interval spanned by the dataset. The mean standard deviation is increased to 0.69°C within the original 1961-90 reference interval, and reduced to 0.76°C elsewhere. The choice of reference interval thus has a predictable and demonstrable effect on the second spatial moment time series of the CRU dataset. The spatial mean time series is in this case largely unaffected: the amplitude of spatial mean temperature change is reduced by 0.1°C when using the 1850-2009 reference interval, while the 90% uncertainty interval of (-0.03, 0.23) indicates that the reduction is not statistically significant. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52605
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Tingley M.P.. A bayesian ANOVA scheme for calculating climate anomalies, with applications to the instrumental temperature record[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(2)
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