DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3375-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84992743698
论文题名: Seasonal and decadal forecasts of Atlantic Sea surface temperatures using a linear inverse model
作者: Huddart B. ; Subramanian A. ; Zanna L. ; Palmer T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1833
结束页码: 1845
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic Ocean
; Linear inverse model
; Predictability
; Sea surface temperature
英文摘要: Predictability of Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) on seasonal and decadal timescales is investigated using a suite of statistical linear inverse models (LIM). Observed monthly SST anomalies in the Atlantic sector (between 22∘S and 66∘N) are used to construct the LIMs for seasonal and decadal prediction. The forecast skills of the LIMs are then compared to that from two current operational forecast systems. Results indicate that the LIM has good forecast skill for time periods of 3–4 months on the seasonal timescale with enhanced predictability in the spring season. On decadal timescales, the impact of inter-annual and intra-annual variability on the predictability is also investigated. The results show that the suite of LIMs have forecast skill for about 3–4 years over most of the domain when we use only the decadal variability for the construction of the LIM. Including higher frequency variability helps improve the forecast skill and maintains the correlation of LIM predictions with the observed SST anomalies for longer periods. These results indicate the importance of temporal scale interactions in improving predictability on decadal timescales. Hence, LIMs can not only be used as benchmarks for estimates of statistical skill but also to isolate contributions to the forecast skills from different timescales, spatial scales or even model components. © 2016, The Author(s). 资助项目: ERC, European Research Council
; NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53077
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Downing College, University of Cambridge, Regent Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Clarendon Laboratory, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Huddart B.,Subramanian A.,Zanna L.,et al. Seasonal and decadal forecasts of Atlantic Sea surface temperatures using a linear inverse model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-05-06)