DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3180-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84969940592
论文题名: Uncertainty in twenty-first century projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models
作者: Reintges A. ; Martin T. ; Latif M. ; Keenlyside N.S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1495
结束页码: 1511
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
; Climate change uncertainty
; Climate projections
; North Atlantic Ocean
英文摘要: Uncertainty in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is analyzed in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections for the twenty-first century; and the different sources of uncertainty (scenario, internal and model) are quantified. Although the uncertainty in future projections of the AMOC index at 30°N is larger in CMIP5 than in CMIP3, the signal-to-noise ratio is comparable during the second half of the century and even larger in CMIP5 during the first half. This is due to a stronger AMOC reduction in CMIP5. At lead times longer than a few decades, model uncertainty dominates uncertainty in future projections of AMOC strength in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model ensembles. Internal variability significantly contributes only during the first few decades, while scenario uncertainty is relatively small at all lead times. Model uncertainty in future changes in AMOC strength arises mostly from uncertainty in density, as uncertainty arising from wind stress (Ekman transport) is negligible. Finally, the uncertainty in changes in the density originates mostly from the simulation of salinity, rather than temperature. High-latitude freshwater flux and the subpolar gyre projections were also analyzed, because these quantities are thought to play an important role for the future AMOC changes. The freshwater input in high latitudes is projected to increase and the subpolar gyre is projected to weaken. Both the freshening and the gyre weakening likely influence the AMOC by causing anomalous salinity advection into the regions of deep water formation. While the high model uncertainty in both parameters may explain the uncertainty in the AMOC projection, deeper insight into the mechanisms for AMOC is required to reach a more quantitative conclusion. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
; DFG, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
; FP7, Seventh Framework Programme
; FP7, Seventh Framework Programme
; FP7, Seventh Framework Programme
; FP7, Seventh Framework Programme
; DFG, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53088
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, Germany; Kiel University, Christian-Albrechts-Platz 4, Kiel, Germany; Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Allégaten 70, Bergen, Norway; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormøhlens Gate 47, Bergen, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Reintges A.,Martin T.,Latif M.,et al. Uncertainty in twenty-first century projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-05-06)