globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3373-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84989181027
论文题名:
Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state
作者: Volpi D.; Guemas V.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期:4
起始页码: 1181
结束页码: 1195
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anomaly initialisation ; Decadal climate prediction ; Full field initialisation ; Global coupled model
英文摘要: Decadal prediction exploits sources of predictability from both the internal variability through the initialisation of the climate model from observational estimates, and the external radiative forcings. When a model is initialised with the observed state at the initial time step (Full Field Initialisation—FFI), the forecast run drifts towards the biased model climate. Distinguishing between the climate signal to be predicted and the model drift is a challenging task, because the application of a-posteriori bias correction has the risk of removing part of the variability signal. The anomaly initialisation (AI) technique aims at addressing the drift issue by answering the following question: if the model is allowed to start close to its own attractor (i.e. its biased world), but the phase of the simulated variability is constrained toward the contemporaneous observed one at the initialisation time, does the prediction skill improve? The relative merits of the FFI and AI techniques applied respectively to the ocean component and the ocean and sea ice components simultaneously in the EC-Earth global coupled model are assessed. For both strategies the initialised hindcasts show better skill than historical simulations for the ocean heat content and AMOC along the first two forecast years, for sea ice and PDO along the first forecast year, while for AMO the improvements are statistically significant for the first two forecast years. The AI in the ocean and sea ice components significantly improves the skill of the Arctic sea surface temperature over the FFI. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53115
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作者单位: Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques/Groupe d’Etude de l’Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France,CNRS, Toulouse, France; ICREA, Pg. Lluis Companys 23, Barcelona, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Volpi D.,Guemas V.,Doblas-Reyes F.J.. Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(4)
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