DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3343-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84988423908
论文题名: A study of 2014 record drought in India with CFSv2 model: role of water vapor transport
作者: Ramakrishna S.S.V.S. ; Brahmananda Rao V. ; Srinivasa Rao B.R. ; Hari Prasad D. ; Nanaji Rao N. ; Panda R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 297
结束页码: 312
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Indian summer monsoon
; Moisture budget
; Monsoon drought
; Rainfall
英文摘要: The Indian summer monsoon season of 2014 was erratic and ended up with a seasonal rainfall deficit of 12 % and a record drought in June. In this study we analyze the moisture transport characteristics for the monsoon season of 2014 using both NCEP FNL reanalysis (FNL) and CFSv2 (CFS) model data. In FNL, in June 2014 there was a large area of divergence of moisture flux. In other months also there was lesser flux. This probably is the cause of 2014 drought. The CFS model overestimated the drought and it reproduces poorly the observed rainfall over central India (65E–95E; 5N–35N). The correlation coefficient (CC) between the IMD observed rainfall and CFS model rainfall is only 0.1 while the CC between rainfall and moisture flux convergence in CFS model is only 0.20 and with FNL data −0.78. This clearly shows that the CFS model has serious difficulty in reproducing the moisture flux convergence and rainfall. We found that the rainfall variations are strongly related to the moisture convergence or divergence. The hypothesis of Krishnamurti et al. (J Atmos Sci 67:3423–3441, 2010) namely the intrusion of west African desert air and the associated low convective available potential energy inhibiting convection and rainfall shows some promise to explain dry spells in Indian summer monsoon. However, the rainfall or lack of it is mainly explained by convergence or divergence of moisture flux. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: MoES, Ministry of Earth Sciences
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53156
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhaptnam, India; CPTECH – INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil; Physical Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
Recommended Citation:
Ramakrishna S.S.V.S.,Brahmananda Rao V.,Srinivasa Rao B.R.,et al. A study of 2014 record drought in India with CFSv2 model: role of water vapor transport[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-01-02)