DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3351-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84988698687
论文题名: Predictability and prediction of summer rainfall in the arid and semi-arid regions of China
作者: Xing W. ; Wang B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 419
结束页码: 431
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arid and semi-arid regions
; Northwest China
; Predictable mode analysis
; Seasonal prediction
; Summer rainfall
英文摘要: Northwest China (NWC) is an arid and semi-arid region where climate variability and environmental changes are sensitive to precipitation. The present study explores sources and limits of predictability of summer precipitation over NWC using the predictable mode analysis (PMA) of percentage of rainfall anomaly data. Two major modes of NWC summer rainfall variability are identified which are tied to Eurasian continental scale precipitation variations. The first mode features wet northern China corresponding to dry central Siberia and wet Mongolia, which is mainly driven by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The second mode features wet western China reflecting wet Central Asia and dry Ural–western Siberia, which strongly links to Indian Ocean SSTA. Anomalous land warming over Eurasia also provides important precursors for the two modes. The cross-validated hindcast results demonstrate these modes can be predicted with significant correlation skills, suggesting that they may be considered as predictable modes. The domain averaged temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill during 1979 to 2015 using 0-month (1-month) lead models is 0.39 (0.35), which is considerably higher than dynamical models’ multi-model ensemble mean skill (−0.02). Maximum potential attainable prediction skills are also estimated and discussed. The result illustrates advantage of PMA in predicting rainfall over dry land areas and large room for dynamical model improvement. However, secular changes of predictors need to be detected continuously in order to make practical useful prediction. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53166
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Recommended Citation:
Xing W.,Wang B.. Predictability and prediction of summer rainfall in the arid and semi-arid regions of China[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-01-02)