DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3355-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84988418478
论文题名: Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models
作者: Dosio A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 493
结束页码: 519
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CORDEX-Africa
; Extreme temperature statistics
; Heat Waves
; HWMId
; Regional Climate Models
英文摘要: The most severe effects of global warning will be related to the frequency and severity of extreme events. We provide an analysis of projections of temperature and related extreme events for Africa based on a large ensemble of Regional Climate Models from the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX). Results are presented not only by means of widely used indices but also with a recently developed Heat Wave Magnitude Index-daily (HWMId), which takes into account both heat wave duration and intensity. Results show that under RCP8.5, warming of more than 3.5 °C is projected in JFM over most of the continent, whereas in JAS temperatures over large part of Northern Africa, the Sahara and the Arabian peninsula are projected to increase up to 6 °C. Large increase in in the number of warm days (Tx90p) is found over sub equatorial Africa, with values up to more than 90 % in JAS, and more than 80 % in JFM over e.g., the gulf of Guinea, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Ethiopia. Changes in Tn90p (warm nights) are usually larger, with some models projecting Tn90p reaching 95 % starting from around 2060 even under RCP4.5 over the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahel. Results also show that the total length of heat spells projected to occur normally (i.e. once every 2 years) under RCP8.5 may be longer than those occurring once every 30 years under the lower emission scenario. By employing the recently developed HWMId index, it is possible to investigate the relationship between heat wave length ad intensity; in particular it is shown that very intense heat waves such as that occurring over the Horn of Africa may have values of HWMId larger than that of longer, but relatively weak, heat waves over West Africa. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53170
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Space, Security and Migration Directorate, European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VA), Italy
Recommended Citation:
Dosio A.. Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-01-02)