DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3314-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84983457942
论文题名: Extracting the tropospheric short-wave influences on subseasonal prediction of precipitation in the United States using CFSv2
作者: Schroeder M. ; Wang S.-Y.S. ; Gillies R.R. ; Hsu H.-H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 3967
结束页码: 3974
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CFSv2
; Midlatitude dynamics
; Shortwave teleconnections
; Subseasonal precipitation forecasting
英文摘要: The development of subseasonal precipitation forecasts on regional scales is becoming an active area of research. Climate forecast models have shown deficiencies in predicting the extreme precipitation anomalies at medium to long-range timescales. This study explores the subseasonal relationships between tropospheric short-waves and regional precipitation anomalies across the continental United States and evaluates capabilities of the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) in resolving these relationships. A regional precipitation proxy is derived from the prediction of the upper tropospheric short-waves based on multiple linear regressions. Across the six climate regions defined by NOAA, the 30-day reforecasts of this short-wave based precipitation proxy are compared to identify the combinations of month and zonal wavenumber that exhibit the highest prediction score. Forecast of this precipitation proxy over certain regions is found to outperform the direct precipitation output of CFSv2 out to 4 weeks, suggesting a subseasonal predictability in precipitation that can be harvested from persistent circulation features. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53207
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Utah Climate Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States; Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States; Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Recommended Citation:
Schroeder M.,Wang S.-Y.S.,Gillies R.R.,et al. Extracting the tropospheric short-wave influences on subseasonal prediction of precipitation in the United States using CFSv2[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-11-12)