DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3313-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84982272547
论文题名: Identifying anomalously early spring onsets in the CESM large ensemble project
作者: Labe Z. ; Ault T. ; Zurita-Milla R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 3949
结束页码: 3966
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; Phenology
; Seasonal dynamics
; Spring onset
英文摘要: Seasonal transitions from winter to spring impact a wide variety of ecological and physical systems. While the effects of early springs across North America are widely documented, changes in their frequency and likelihood under the combined influences of climate change and natural variability are poorly understood. Extremely early springs, such as March 2012, can lead to severe economical losses and agricultural damage when these are followed by hard freeze events. Here we use the new Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project and Extended Spring Indices to simulate historical and future spring onsets across the United States and in the particular the Great Lakes region. We found a marked increase in the frequency of March 2012-like springs by midcentury in addition to an overall trend towards earlier spring onsets, which nearly doubles that of observational records. However, changes in the date of last freeze do not occur at the same rate, therefore, causing a potential increase in the threat of plant tissue damage. Although large-scale climate modes, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, have previously dominated decadal to multidecadal spring onset trends, our results indicate a decreased role in natural climate variability and hence a greater forced response by the end of the century for modulating trends. Without a major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, our study suggests that years like 2012 in the US could become normal by mid-century. © 2016, The Author(s). 资助项目: USGS, U.S. Geological Survey
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53214
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Labe Z.,Ault T.,Zurita-Milla R.. Identifying anomalously early spring onsets in the CESM large ensemble project[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-11-12)