DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3246-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84976306080
论文题名: Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns
作者: Tan X. ; Gan T.Y.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2983
结束页码: 3001
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Canadian extreme precipitation
; Climate indices
; El Niño Southern Oscillation
; Large-scale climate patterns
; Non-stationary probability distributions
; Poisson regression
; Trend
英文摘要: In recent years, because the frequency and severity of floods have increased across Canada, it is important to understand the characteristics of Canadian heavy precipitation. Long-term precipitation data of 463 gauging stations of Canada were analyzed using non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Poisson distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Time-varying covariates that represent large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NP) were incorporated to parameters of GEV, Poisson and GP distributions. Results show that GEV distributions tend to under-estimate annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) of western and eastern coastal regions of Canada, compared to GP distributions. Poisson regressions show that temporal clusters of heavy precipitation events in Canada are related to large-scale climate patterns. By modeling AMP time series with non-stationary GEV and heavy precipitation with non-stationary GP distributions, it is evident that AMP and heavy precipitation of Canada show strong non-stationarities (abrupt and slowly varying changes) likely because of the influence of large-scale climate patterns. AMP in southwestern coastal regions, southern Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes tend to be higher in El Niño than in La Niña years, while AMP of other regions of Canada tends to be lower in El Niño than in La Niña years. The influence of ENSO on heavy precipitation was spatially consistent but stronger than on AMP. The effect of PDO, NAO and NP on extreme precipitation is also statistically significant at some stations across Canada. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NSERC, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53251
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
Recommended Citation:
Tan X.,Gan T.Y.. Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-09-10)