DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3164-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84968542451
论文题名: Empirical prediction of the onset dates of South China Sea summer monsoon
作者: Zhu Z. ; Li T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1633
结束页码: 1645
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extended-range forecast
; Physical–empirical model
; Seasonal prediction
; Spatial–temporal projection model
; The onset dates of South China Sea summer monsoon
英文摘要: The onset of South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) signifies the commencement of the wet season over East Asia. Predicting the SCSSM onset date is of significant importance. In this study, we establish two different statistical models, namely the physical–empirical model (PEM) and the spatial–temporal projection model (STPM) to predict the SCSSM onset. The PEM is constructed from the seasonal prediction perspective. Observational diagnoses reveal that the early onset of the SCSSM is preceded by (a) a warming tendency in middle and lower troposphere (850–500 hPa) over central Siberia from January to March, (b) a La Niña-like zonal dipole sea surface temperature pattern over the tropical Pacific in March, and (c) a dipole sea level pressure pattern with negative center in subtropics and positive center over high latitude of Southern Hemisphere in January. The PEM built on these predictors achieves a cross-validated reforecast temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.84 for the period of 1979–2004, and an independent forecast TCC skill of 0.72 for the period 2005–2014. The STPM is built on the extended-range forecast perspective. Pentad data are used to predict a zonal wind index over the South China Sea region. Similar to PEM, the STPM is constructed using 1979–2004 data. Based on the forecasted zonal wind index, the independent forecast of the SCSSM onset dates achieves a TCC skill of 0.90 for 2005–2014. The STPM provides more detailed information for the intraseasonal evolution during the period of the SCSSM onset (pentad 25–35). The two models proposed herein are expected to facilitate the real-time prediction of the SCSSM onset. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53312
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East West Road, POST Bldg. 401, Honolulu, HI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhu Z.,Li T.. Empirical prediction of the onset dates of South China Sea summer monsoon[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-05-06)