DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3160-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84966644162
论文题名: Cross-validation analysis of bias models in Bayesian multi-model projections of climate
作者: Huttunen J.M.J. ; Räisänen J. ; Nissinen A. ; Lipponen A. ; Kolehmainen V.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1555
结束页码: 1570
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian estimation
; Bias change
; Climate projections
; CMIP5
; Cross-validation
; Model bias
; Multi-model prediction
英文摘要: Climate change projections are commonly based on multi-model ensembles of climate simulations. In this paper we consider the choice of bias models in Bayesian multimodel predictions. Buser et al. (Clim Res 44(2–3):227–241, 2010a) introduced a hybrid bias model which combines commonly used constant bias and constant relation bias assumptions. The hybrid model includes a weighting parameter which balances these bias models. In this study, we use a cross-validation approach to study which bias model or bias parameter leads to, in a specific sense, optimal climate change projections. The analysis is carried out for summer and winter season means of 2 m-temperatures spatially averaged over the IPCC SREX regions, using 19 model runs from the CMIP5 data set. The cross-validation approach is applied to calculate optimal bias parameters (in the specific sense) for projecting the temperature change from the control period (1961–2005) to the scenario period (2046–2090). The results are compared to the results of the Buser et al. (Clim Res 44(2–3):227–241, 2010a) method which includes the bias parameter as one of the unknown parameters to be estimated from the data. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: UEF, Itä-Suomen Yliopisto
; Suomen Akatemia
; Suomen Akatemia
; Suomen Akatemia
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53340
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Applied Physics, University of Eastern Finland, P. O. Box 1627, Kuopio, Finland; Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P. O. Box 48, Helsinki, Finland; Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Atmospheric Research Centre of Eastern Finland, P. O. Box 1627, Kuopio, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Huttunen J.M.J.,Räisänen J.,Nissinen A.,et al. Cross-validation analysis of bias models in Bayesian multi-model projections of climate[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-05-06)