DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3118-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84964330407
论文题名: On model differences and skill in predicting sea surface temperature in the Nordic and Barents Seas
作者: Langehaug H.R. ; Matei D. ; Eldevik T. ; Lohmann K. ; Gao Y.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 913
结束页码: 933
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Barents Sea
; CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
; Nordic Seas
; Predictive skill
; SST
英文摘要: The Nordic Seas and the Barents Sea is the Atlantic Ocean’s gateway to the Arctic Ocean, and the Gulf Stream’s northern extension brings large amounts of heat into this region and modulates climate in northwestern Europe. We have investigated the predictive skill of initialized hindcast simulations performed with three state-of-the-art climate prediction models within the CMIP5-framework, focusing on sea surface temperature (SST) in the Nordic Seas and Barents Sea, but also on sea ice extent, and the subpolar North Atlantic upstream. The hindcasts are compared with observation-based SST for the period 1961–2010. All models have significant predictive skill in specific regions at certain lead times. However, among the three models there is little consistency concerning which regions that display predictive skill and at what lead times. For instance, in the eastern Nordic Seas, only one model has significant skill in predicting observed SST variability at longer lead times (7–10 years). This region is of particular promise in terms of predictability, as observed thermohaline anomalies progress from the subpolar North Atlantic to the Fram Strait within the time frame of a couple of years. In the same model, predictive skill appears to move northward along a similar route as forecast time progresses. We attribute this to the northward advection of SST anomalies, contributing to skill at longer lead times in the eastern Nordic Seas. The skill at these lead times in particular beats that of persistence forecast, again indicating the potential role of ocean circulation as a source for skill. Furthermore, we discuss possible explanations for the difference in skill among models, such as different model resolutions, initialization techniques, and model climatologies and variance. © 2016, The Author(s). 资助项目: FP7, Seventh Framework Programme
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53345
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Thromøhlensgate 47, Bergen, Norway; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, Hamburg, Germany; Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 70, Bergen, Norway; Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, No. 40, Hua Yan Li, Qi Jia Huo Zi, Chao Yang District, P. O. Box 9804, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Langehaug H.R.,Matei D.,Eldevik T.,et al. On model differences and skill in predicting sea surface temperature in the Nordic and Barents Seas[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-03-04)