DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3134-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84964501807
论文题名: Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions
作者: Feng R. ; Duan W. ; Mu M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 1173
结束页码: 1185
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Indian Ocean dipole
; Initial errors
; Sensitive areas
; Winter predictability barrier
英文摘要: In this paper, we explored potential observing locations (i.e., the sensitive areas) of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events to advance beyond the winter predictability barrier (WPB) using the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory climate model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1). The sensitivity analysis is conducted through perfect model predictability experiments, in which the model is assumed to be perfect and so any prediction errors are caused by initial errors. The results show that the initial errors with an east–west dipole pattern are more likely to result in a significant WPB than spatially correlated noises; the areas where the large values of the dipole pattern initial errors are located have great effects on prediction uncertainties in winter and provide useful information regarding the sensitive areas. Further, the prediction uncertainties in winter are more sensitive to the initial errors in the subsurface large value areas than to those in the surface large value areas. The results indicate that the subsurface large value areas are sensitive areas for advancing beyond the WPB of IOD predictions and if we carry out intensive observations across these areas, the prediction errors in winter may be largely reduced. This will lead to large improvements in the skill of wintertime IOD event forecasts. © 2016, The Author(s). 资助项目: NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53358
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China
Recommended Citation:
Feng R.,Duan W.,Mu M.. Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-03-04)