DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3147-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84965022323
论文题名: Do dynamic regional models add value to the global model projections of Indian monsoon?
作者: Singh S. ; Ghosh S. ; Sahana A.S. ; Vittal H. ; Karmakar S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 1375
结束页码: 1397
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Added value
; CORDEX
; Evaluation
; Indian monsoon
; Regional models
英文摘要: Dynamic Regional Climate Models (RCMs) work at fine resolution for a limited region and hence they are presumed to simulate regional climate better than General Circulation Models (GCMs). Simulations by RCMs are used for impacts assessment, often without any evaluation. There is a growing debate on the added value made by the regional models to the projections of GCMs specifically for the regions like, United States and Europe. Evaluation of RCMs for Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) has been overlooked in literature, though there are few disjoint studies on Indian monsoon extremes and biases. Here we present a comprehensive study on the evaluations of RCMs for the ISMR with all its important characteristics such as northward and eastward propagation, onset, seasonal rainfall patterns, intra-seasonal oscillations, spatial variability and patterns of extremes. We evaluate nine regional simulations from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment and compare them with their host Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 GCM projections. We do not find any consistent improvement in the RCM simulations with respect to their host GCMs for any of the characteristics of Indian monsoon except the spatial variation. We also find that the simulations of the ISMR characteristics by a good number of RCMs, are worse than those of their host GCMs. No consistent added value is observed in the RCM simulations of changes in ISMR characteristics over recent periods, compared to past; though there are few exceptions. These results highlight the need for proper evaluation before utilizing regional models for impacts assessment and subsequent policy making for sustainable climate change adaptation. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: Department of Science and Technology, Government of Kerala
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53360
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India; Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India; Centre for Environmental Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
Recommended Citation:
Singh S.,Ghosh S.,Sahana A.S.,et al. Do dynamic regional models add value to the global model projections of Indian monsoon?[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-03-04)