| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-016-3060-4
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84961675599
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| 论文题名: | Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts |
| 作者: | Kumar A.; Hu Z.-Z.; Jha B.; Peng P.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2017
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| 卷: | 48, 期:2017-01-02 | | 起始页码: | 39
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| 结束页码: | 51
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | ENSO
; Multi-model hindcasts
; NMME
; Predictability estimation
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| 英文摘要: | Based on hindcasts of seasonal forecast systems participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, the seasonal dependence of predictability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was estimated. The results were consistent with earlier analyses in that the predictability of ENSO was highest in winter and lowest in spring and summer. Further, predictability as measured by the relative amplitude of predictable and unpredictable components was dominated by the ensemble mean instead of the spread (or dispersion) among ensemble members. This result was consistent with previous analysis that most of ENSO predictability resides in the shift of the probability density function (PDF) of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (i.e., changes in the first moment of the PDF that is associated with the ensemble mean of ENSO SST anomalies) rather than due to changes in the spread of the PDF. The analysis establishes our current best estimate of ENSO predictability that can serve as a benchmark for quantifying further improvements resulting from advances in observing, assimilation, and seasonal prediction systems. © 2016, Springer-Verlag (outside the USA). |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53402
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Kumar A.,Hu Z.-Z.,Jha B.,et al. Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-01-02)
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