DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3070-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961205347
论文题名: The statistical extended-range (10–30-day) forecast of summer rainfall anomalies over the entire China
作者: Zhu Z. ; Li T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 209
结束页码: 224
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extended-range forecast
; Intraseasonal oscillation
; Spatial–temporal projection model
; Summer rainfall anomalies over China
英文摘要: The extended-range (10–30-day) rainfall forecast over the entire China was carried out using spatial–temporal projection models (STPMs). Using a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of intraseasonal (10–80-day) rainfall anomalies, China is divided into ten sub-regions. Different predictability sources were selected for each of the ten regions. The forecast skills are ranked for each region. Based on temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) and Gerrity skill score, useful skills are found for most parts of China at a 20–25-day lead. The southern China and the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley show the highest predictive skills, whereas southwestern China and Huang-Huai region have the lowest predictive skills. By combining forecast results from ten regional STPMs, the TCC distribution of 8-year (2003–2010) independent forecast for the entire China is investigated. The combined forecast results from ten STPMs show significantly higher skills than the forecast with just one single STPM for the entire China. Independent forecast examples of summer rainfall anomalies around the period of Beijing Olympic Games in 2008 and Shanghai World Expo in 2010 are presented. The result shows that the current model is able to reproduce the gross pattern of the summer intraseasonal rainfall over China at a 20-day lead. The present study provides, for the first time, a guide on the statistical extended-range forecast of summer rainfall anomalies for the entire China. It is anticipated that the ideas and methods proposed here will facilitate the extended-range forecast in China. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NSFC, Natural Science Foundation of China
; ONR, Office of Naval Research
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53407
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East West Road, POST Bldg. 401, Honolulu, HI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhu Z.,Li T.. The statistical extended-range (10–30-day) forecast of summer rainfall anomalies over the entire China[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-01-02)