DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3096-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961653066
论文题名: Winter climate changes over East Asian region under RCP scenarios using East Asian winter monsoon indices
作者: Hong J.-Y. ; Ahn J.-B. ; Jhun J.-G.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 577
结束页码: 595
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; CMIP5
; East Asian winter monsoon
; Monsoon index
; RCP scenarios
英文摘要: The changes in the winter climatology and variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) for the late 21st century (2070–2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are projected in terms of EAWM indices (EAWMIs). Firstly, the capability of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the boreal winter climatology and the interannual variability of the EAWM for the late 20th century (1971–2000) is examined. Nine of twenty-three climate models are selected based on the pattern correlations with observation and a multi-model ensemble is applied to the nine model data. Three of twelve EAWMIs that show the most significant temporal correlations between the observation and CMIP5 surface air temperatures are utilized. The ensemble CMIP5 is capable of reproducing the overall features of the EAWM in spite of some biases in the region. The negative correlations between the EAWMIs and boreal winter temperature are well reproduced and 3–5 years of the major interannual variation observed in this region are also well simulated according to power spectral analyses of the simulated indices. The fields regressed onto the indices that resemble the composite strong winter monsoon pattern are simulated more or less weakly in CMIP5 compared to the observation. However, the regressed fields of sea level pressure, surface air temperature, 500-hPa geopotential height, and 300-hPa zonal wind are well established with pattern correlations above 0.83 between CMIP5 and observation data. The differences between RCPs and Historical indicate strong warming, which increases with latitude, ranging from 1 to 5 °C under RCP4.5 and from 3 to 7 °C under RCP8.5 in the East Asian region. The anomalous southerly winds generally become stronger, implying weaker EAWMs in both scenarios. These features are also identified with fields regressed onto the indices in RCPs. The future projections reveal that the interannual variability of the indices will be maintained with an intensity similar to that of the present. The correlation between monsoon indices and Arctic Oscillation increases over time. On the other hand, the correlation between monsoon indices and North Atlantic Oscillation decreases. © 2016, The Author(s). 资助项目: KMA, Korea Meteorological Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53409
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Division of Polar Climate Change, Korea Polar Research Institute, 26, Songdomirae-ro, Yeonsu-gu, Incheon, South Korea; Division of Earth Environmental System, Department of Atmospheric sciences, Pusan National University, 2, Busandaehak-ro 63beon-gil, Geumjeong-gu, Busan, South Korea; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Hong J.-Y.,Ahn J.-B.,Jhun J.-G.. Winter climate changes over East Asian region under RCP scenarios using East Asian winter monsoon indices[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-01-02)