DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3039-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84975691274
论文题名: The impact of eastern equatorial Pacific convection on the diversity of boreal winter El Niño teleconnection patterns
作者: Johnson N.C. ; Kosaka Y.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 12 起始页码: 3737
结束页码: 3765
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic amplification
; Convective threshold
; Eastern Pacific
; El Niño
; Pacific/North American pattern
; Subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction
; Teleconnection patterns
英文摘要: It is widely recognized that no two El Niño episodes are the same; hence the predictable variations of the climate impacts associated with El Niño remain an open problem. Through an analysis of observational data and of large ensembles from six climate models forced by the observed time-varying sea surface temperatures (SSTs), this study raises the argument that the most fundamental predictable variations of boreal wintertime El Niño teleconnection patterns relate to the distinction between convective (EPC) and non-convective eastern Pacific (EPN) events. This distinction is a consequence of the nonlinear relationship between deep convection and eastern Pacific SSTs, and the transition to a convective eastern Pacific has a predictable relationship with local and tropical mean SSTs. Notable differences (EPC minus EPN) between the teleconnection patterns include positive precipitation differences over southern North America and northern Europe, positive temperature differences over northeast North America, and negative temperature differences over the Arctic. These differences are stronger and more statistically significant than the more common partitioning between eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niño. Most of the seasonal mean composite anomalies associated with EPN El Niño are not statistically significant owing to the weak SST forcing and small sample sizes; however, the EPN teleconnection is more robust on subseasonal timescales following periods when the EPN pattern of tropical convection is active. These findings suggest that the differences between EPC and EPN climate impacts are physically robust and potentially useful for intraseasonal forecasts for lead times of up to a few weeks. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: MEXT, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology
; JSPS, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53423
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Cooperative Institute for Climate Science, Princeton University, NOAA GFDL 201 Forrestal Rd., Princeton, NJ, United States; Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Johnson N.C.,Kosaka Y.. The impact of eastern equatorial Pacific convection on the diversity of boreal winter El Niño teleconnection patterns[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(12)