globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3043-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84975706478
论文题名:
Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: the warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble
作者: Li G.; Xie S.-P.; Du Y.; Luo Y.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期:12
起始页码: 3817
结束页码: 3831
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Convective feedback ; El Niño-like warming pattern ; Equatorial Pacific cold tongue ; Model error ; Observational constraint ; Western Pacific precipitation
英文摘要: The excessive cold tongue error in the equatorial Pacific has persisted in several generations of climate models. Based on the historical simulations and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble (MME), this study finds that models with an excessive westward extension of cold tongue and insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation tend to project a weaker east-minus-west gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) warming along the equatorial Pacific under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This La Niña-like error of tropical Pacific SST warming is consistent with our understanding of negative SST-convective feedback over the western Pacific warm pool. Based on this relationship between the present simulations and future projections, the present study applies an “observational constraint” of equatorial western Pacific precipitation to calibrate the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. After the corrections, CMIP5 models robustly project an El Niño-like warming pattern, with a MME mean increase by a factor of 2.3 in east-minus-west gradient of equatorial Pacific SST warming and reduced inter-model uncertainty. Corrections in projected changes in tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation are physically consistent. This study suggests that a realistic cold tongue simulation would lead to a more reliable tropical Pacific climate projection. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation ; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China ; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53429
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 164 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, China

Recommended Citation:
Li G.,Xie S.-P.,Du Y.,et al. Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: the warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(12)
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