DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3024-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957949361
论文题名: Evaluating CMIP5 models using GPS radio occultation COSMIC temperature in UTLS region during 2006–2013: twenty-first century projection and trends
作者: Kishore P. ; Basha G. ; Venkat Ratnam M. ; Velicogna I. ; Ouarda T.B.M.J. ; Narayana Rao D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 3253
结束页码: 3270
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; COSMIC GPSRO
; Evaluation
; Projections
; Temperature
; Trends
; UTLS
英文摘要: This paper provides a first overview of the performance of global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) temperatures. Temperature from CMIP5 models is evaluated with high resolution global positioning system radio occultation (GPSRO) constellation observing system for meteorology, ionosphere, and climate (COSMIC) data during the period of July 2006–December 2013. Future projections of 17 CMIP5 models based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios are utilized to assess model performance and to identify the biases in the temperature in the UTLS region at eight different pressure levels. The evaluations were carried out vertically, regionally, and globally to understand the temperature uncertainties in CMIP5 models. It is found that the CMIP5 models successfully reproduce the general features of temperature structure in terms of vertical, annual, and inter-annual variation. The ensemble mean of CMIP5 models compares well with the COSMIC GPSRO data with a mean difference of ±1 K. In the tropical region, temperature biases vary from one model to another. The spatial difference between COSMIC and ensemble mean reveals that at 100 hPa, the models show a bias of about ±2 K. With increase in altitude the bias decreases and turns into a cold bias over the tropical and Antarctic regions. The future projections of the CMIP5 models were presented during 2006–2099 under the RCP 8.5 scenarios. Projections show a warming trend at 300, 200, and 100 hPa levels over a wide region of 60°N–45°S. The warming decreases rapidly and becomes cooling with increase in altitudes by the end of twenty-first century. Significant cooling is observed at 30, 20, and 10 hPa levels. At 300/10 hPa, the temperature trend increases/decreases by ~0.82/0.88 K/decade at the end of twenty-first century under RCP 8.5 scenarios. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53464
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States; Institute Center for Water and Environment (iWATER), Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 54224, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki, Tirupati, India; INRS-ETE, National Institute of Scientific Research, Quebec City, QC, Canada; SRM Research Institute, SRM University, Chennai, India
Recommended Citation:
Kishore P.,Basha G.,Venkat Ratnam M.,et al. Evaluating CMIP5 models using GPS radio occultation COSMIC temperature in UTLS region during 2006–2013: twenty-first century projection and trends[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-09-10)