DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3006-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84991408158
论文题名: Projections of glacier change in the Altai Mountains under twenty-first century climate scenarios
作者: Zhang Y. ; Enomoto H. ; Ohata T. ; Kitabata H. ; Kadota T. ; Hirabayashi Y.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2935
结束页码: 2953
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Altai glaciers
; Climate change
; GCM
; Glacier mass balance
; Water availability
英文摘要: We project glacier surface mass balances of the Altai Mountains over the period 2006–2100 for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using daily near-surface air temperature and precipitation from 12 global climate models in combination with a surface mass balance model. The results indicate that the Altai glaciers will undergo sustained mass loss throughout the 21st for both RCPs and reveal the future fate of glaciers of different sizes. By 2100, glacier area in the region will shrink by 26 ± 10 % for RCP4.5, while it will shrink by 60 ± 15 % for RCP8.5. According to our simulations, most disappearing glaciers are located in the western part of the Altai Mountains. For RCP4.5, all glaciers disappearing in the twenty-first century have a present-day size smaller than 5.0 km2, while for RCP8.5, an additional ~7 % of glaciers in the initial size class of 5.0–10.0 km2 also vanish. We project different trends in the total meltwater discharge of the region for the two RCPs, which does not peak before 2100, with important consequences for regional water availability, particular for the semi-arid and arid regions. This further highlights the potential implications of change in the Altai glaciers on regional hydrology and environment. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53465
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Arctic Environment Research Center, National Institute of Polar Research, Tokyo, Japan; The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Tokyo, Japan; Japan Agency for Marin-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; Institute of Engineering Innovation, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Zhang Y.,Enomoto H.,Ohata T.,et al. Projections of glacier change in the Altai Mountains under twenty-first century climate scenarios[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-09-10)