DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3015-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957704726
论文题名: Abrupt transitions in the NAO control of explosive North Atlantic cyclone development
作者: Gómara I. ; Rodríguez-Fonseca B. ; Zurita-Gotor P. ; Ulbrich S. ; Pinto J.G.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 3091
结束页码: 3111
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AMOC
; Explosive cyclogenesis
; Extra-tropical cyclones
; Jet stream
; NAO
; Ocean variability
英文摘要: Explosive cyclones are intense extra-tropical low pressure systems featuring large deepening rates. In the Euro-Atlantic sector, they are a major source of life-threatening weather impacts due to their associated strong wind gusts, heavy precipitation and storm surges. The wintertime variability of the North Atlantic cyclonic activity is primarily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we investigate the interannual and multi-decadal variability of explosive North Atlantic cyclones using track density data from two reanalysis datasets (NCEP and ERA-40) and a control simulation of an atmosphere/ocean coupled General Circulation Model (GCM—ECHAM5/MPIOM1). The leading interannual and multi-decadal modes of variability of explosive cyclone track density are characterized by a strengthening/weakening pattern between Newfoundland and Iceland, which is mainly modulated by the NAO at both timescales. However, the NAO control of interannual cyclone variability is not stationary in time and abruptly fluctuates during periods of 20–25 years long both in NCEP and ECHAM5/MPIOM1. These transitions are accompanied by structural changes in the leading mode of explosive cyclone variability, and by decreased/enhanced baroclinicity over the sub-polar/sub-tropical North Atlantic. The influence of the ocean is apparently important for both the occurrence and persistence of such anomalous periods. In the GCM, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation appears to influence the large-scale baroclinicity and explosive cyclone development over the North Atlantic. These results permit a better understanding of explosive cyclogenesis variability at different climatic timescales and might help to improve predictions of these hazardous events. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53475
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Dpto. Geofísica y Meteorología, Facultad de CC. Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria s/n, Madrid, Spain; Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), UCM, CSIC, Madrid, Spain; Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Gómara I.,Rodríguez-Fonseca B.,Zurita-Gotor P.,et al. Abrupt transitions in the NAO control of explosive North Atlantic cyclone development[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-09-10)