DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3008-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84991320449
论文题名: Space–time variability of Indonesian rainfall at inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales
作者: Yanto ; Rajagopalan B. ; Zagona E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2975
结束页码: 2989
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Dynamic linear models
; Indonesian rainfall
; Multi-decadal variability
; PCA
; Wavelet analysis
英文摘要: We investigated the space–time variability of wet (Nov–Apr) and dry (May–Oct) season rainfall over Indonesia, using monthly gridded rainfall data from the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit covering the period 1901–2012. Three complimentary techniques were employed—(1) principal component analysis to identify the dominant modes of variability, (2) wavelet spectral analysis to identify the spectral characteristics of the leading modes and their coherence with large scale climate variables and (3) Bayesian Dynamical Linear Model (BDLM) to quantify the temporal variability of the association between rainfall modes and climate variables. In the dry season when the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is to the north of the equator the leading two principal components (PCs) explain close to 50 % of the rainfall. In the wet season the ITCZ moves to the south and the leading PCs explain close to 30 % of the variance. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the driver of the leading modes of rainfall variability during both seasons. We find asymmetry in the teleconnections of ENSO to high and low rainfall years in the dry season. Furthermore, ENSO and the leading PCs of rainfall have spectral coherence in the inter-annual band (2–8 years) over the entire period of record and in the multi-decadal (8–16 years) band in post-1980 years. In addition, during the 1950–1980 period the second mode of variability in both seasons has a strong relationship with Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The association between ENSO and the leading mode of Indonesian rainfall has strengthened in recent decades, more so during dry season. These inter-annual and multi-decadal variability of Indonesian rainfall modulated by Pacific climate drivers has implications for rainfall and hydrologic predictability important for water resources management. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53481
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Civil Engineering Department, Jenderal Soedirman University, Purwokerto, Indonesia; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Yanto,Rajagopalan B.,Zagona E.. Space–time variability of Indonesian rainfall at inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-09-10)