DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3004-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957945497
论文题名: Multisite multivariate modeling of daily precipitation and temperature in the Canadian Prairie Provinces using generalized linear models
作者: Asong Z.E. ; Khaliq M.N. ; Wheater H.S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2901
结束页码: 2921
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extreme events
; GLMs
; Precipitation
; Stochastic modelling
; Temperature
; Weather generators
英文摘要: Based on the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework, a multisite stochastic modelling approach is developed using daily observations of precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures from 120 sites located across the Canadian Prairie Provinces: Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Temperature is modeled using a two-stage normal-heteroscedastic model by fitting mean and variance components separately. Likewise, precipitation occurrence and conditional precipitation intensity processes are modeled separately. The relationship between precipitation and temperature is accounted for by using transformations of precipitation as covariates to predict temperature fields. Large scale atmospheric covariates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis-I, teleconnection indices, geographical site attributes, and observed precipitation and temperature records are used to calibrate these models for the 1971–2000 period. Validation of the developed models is performed on both pre- and post-calibration period data. Results of the study indicate that the developed models are able to capture spatiotemporal characteristics of observed precipitation and temperature fields, such as inter-site and inter-variable correlation structure, and systematic regional variations present in observed sequences. A number of simulated weather statistics ranging from seasonal means to characteristics of temperature and precipitation extremes and some of the commonly used climate indices are also found to be in close agreement with those derived from observed data. This GLM-based modelling approach will be developed further for multisite statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model outputs to explore climate variability and change in this region of Canada. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53482
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Global Institute for Water Security and School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, 11 Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Asong Z.E.,Khaliq M.N.,Wheater H.S.. Multisite multivariate modeling of daily precipitation and temperature in the Canadian Prairie Provinces using generalized linear models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-09-10)