globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3013-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957682460
论文题名:
Seasonal forecasting of intense tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific basins
作者: Choi W.; Ho C.-H.; Jin C.-S.; Kim J.; Feng S.; Park D.-S.R.; Schemm J.-K.E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期:2017-09-10
起始页码: 3063
结束页码: 3075
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Intense tropical cyclone ; North Atlantic ; Seasonal forecast ; Track-pattern-based model ; Western North Pacific
英文摘要: Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) accompanying torrential rain and powerful wind gusts often cause substantial socio-economic losses in the regions around their landfall. This study analyzes intense TCs in the North Atlantic (NA) and the western North Pacific (WNP) basins during the period 1982–2013. Different intensity criteria are used to define intense TCs for these two basins, category 1 and above for NA and category 3 and above for WNP, because the number of TCs in the NA basin is much smaller than that in the WNP basin. Using a fuzzy clustering method, intense TC tracks in the NA and the WNP basins are classified into two and three representative patterns, respectively. On the basis of the clustering results, a track-pattern-based model is then developed for forecasting the seasonal activities of intense TCs in the two basins. Cross-validation of the model skill for 1982–2013 as well as verification of a forecast for the 2014 TC season suggest that our intense TC model is applicable to operational uses. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53483
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, South Korea; National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States

Recommended Citation:
Choi W.,Ho C.-H.,Jin C.-S.,et al. Seasonal forecasting of intense tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific basins[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-09-10)
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