globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-2993-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84958775372
论文题名:
Impact of springtime Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts
作者: Senan R.; Orsolini Y.J.; Weisheimer A.; Vitart F.; Balsamo G.; Stockdale T.N.; Dutra E.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.; Basang D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期:2017-09-10
起始页码: 2709
结束页码: 2725
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Indian monsoon ; Land–atmosphere interactions ; Monsoon onset ; Seasonal forecasting ; Snow depth
英文摘要: The springtime snowpack over the Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau (HTP) region and Eurasia has long been suggested to be an influential factor on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. To assess the impact of realistic initialization of springtime snow over HTP on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon, we examine a suite of coupled ocean–atmosphere 4-month ensemble reforecasts made at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, using their Seasonal Forecasting System 4. The reforecasts were initialized on 1 April every year for the period 1981–2010. In these seasonal reforecasts, the snow is initialized “realistically” with ERA-Interim/Land Reanalysis. In addition, we carried out an additional set of forecasts, identical in all aspects except that initial conditions for snow-related land surface variables over the HTP region are randomized. We show that high snow depth over HTP influences the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient reversal that marks the monsoon onset. Composite difference based on a normalized HTP snow index reveal that, in high snow years, (1) the onset is delayed by about 8 days, and (2) negative precipitation anomalies and warm surface conditions prevail over India. We show that about half of this delay can be attributed to the realistic initialization of snow over the HTP region. We further demonstrate that high April snow depths over HTP are not uniquely influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole or the North Atlantic Oscillation. © 2016, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53494
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作者单位: Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P. O. Box 1022, Blindern, Oslo, Norway; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Kjeller, Norway; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain; Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), Barcelona, Spain; Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain; Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; Institute of Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Science Research, Lhasa, Tibet, China

Recommended Citation:
Senan R.,Orsolini Y.J.,Weisheimer A.,et al. Impact of springtime Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-09-10)
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