DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2962-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84951925665
论文题名: Prediction of winter precipitation over northwest India using ocean heat fluxes
作者: Nageswararao M.M. ; Mohanty U.C. ; Osuri K.K. ; Ramakrishna S.S.V.S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2253
结束页码: 2271
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Empirical relationships
; Northwest India
; Ocean heat fluxes
; Seasonal prediction
; Winter precipitation
英文摘要: The winter precipitation (December–February) over northwest India (NWI) is highly variable in terms of time and space. The maximum precipitation occurs over the Himalaya region and decreases towards south of NWI. The winter precipitation is important for water resources and agriculture sectors over the region and for the economy of the country. It is an exigent task to the scientific community to provide a seasonal outlook for the regional scale precipitation. The oceanic heat fluxes are known to have a strong linkage with the ocean and atmosphere. Henceforth, in this study, we obtained the relationship of NWI winter precipitation with total downward ocean heat fluxes at the global ocean surface, 15 regions with significant correlations are identified from August to November at 90 % confidence level. These strong relations encourage developing an empirical model for predicting winter precipitation over NWI. The multiple linear regression (MLR) and principal component regression (PCR) models are developed and evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation. The developed regression models are able to predict the winter precipitation patterns over NWI with significant (99 % confidence level) index of agreement and correlations. Moreover, these models capture the signals of extremes, but could not reach the peaks (excess and deficit) of the observations. PCR performs better than MLR for predicting winter precipitation over NWI. Therefore, the total downward ocean heat fluxes at surface from August to November are having a significant impact on seasonal winter precipitation over the NWI. It concludes that these interrelationships are more useful for the development of empirical models and feasible to predict the winter precipitation over NWI with sufficient lead-time (in advance) for various risk management sectors. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53507
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, A2-805, Toshali Bhavan, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, National Institute of Technology, Rourkela, India; Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India
Recommended Citation:
Nageswararao M.M.,Mohanty U.C.,Osuri K.K.,et al. Prediction of winter precipitation over northwest India using ocean heat fluxes[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-07-08)