DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2960-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961674083
论文题名: How historic simulation–observation discrepancy affects future warming projections in a very large model ensemble
作者: Goodwin P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2219
结束页码: 2233
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate ensemble
; Climate projections
; Future warming uncertainty
英文摘要: Projections of future climate made by model-ensembles have credibility because the historic simulations by these models are consistent with, or near-consistent with, historic observations. However, it is not known how small inconsistencies between the ranges of observed and simulated historic climate change affects the future projections made by a model ensemble. Here, the impact of historical simulation–observation inconsistencies on future warming projections is quantified in a 4-million member Monte Carlo ensemble from a new efficient Earth System Model (ESM). Of the 4-million ensemble members, a subset of 182,500 are consistent with historic ranges of warming, heat uptake and carbon uptake simulated by the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. This simulation–consistent subset projects similar future warming ranges to the CMIP5 ensemble for all four RCP scenarios, indicating the new ESM represents an efficient tool to explore parameter space for future warming projections based on historic performance. A second subset of 14,500 ensemble members are consistent with historic observations for warming, heat uptake and carbon uptake. This observation–consistent subset projects a narrower range for future warming, with the lower bounds of projected warming still similar to CMIP5, but the upper warming bounds reduced by 20–35 %. These findings suggest that part of the upper range of twenty-first century CMIP5 warming projections may reflect historical simulation–observation inconsistencies. However, the agreement of lower bounds for projected warming implies that the likelihood of warming exceeding dangerous levels over the twenty-first century is unaffected by small discrepancies between CMIP5 models and observations. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53522
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Goodwin P.. How historic simulation–observation discrepancy affects future warming projections in a very large model ensemble[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-07-08)