DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2969-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84954307961
论文题名: Predictable signals in seasonal mean soil moisture simulated with observation-based atmospheric forcing over China
作者: Ying K. ; Zhao T. ; Zheng X. ; Quan X.-W. ; Frederiksen C.S. ; Li M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2373
结束页码: 2395
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Potential predictability
; Predictable signal
; Prediction skill
; Weather noise
英文摘要: The Community Land Model version 3.5 is driven by an observation-based meteorological dataset to simulate soil moisture over China for the period 1951–2008. A method for identifying the patterns of interannual variability that arise from slow (potentially predictable) and intraseasonal (unpredictable) variability is also applied; this allows identification of the sources of the predictability of seasonal soil moisture in China, during March–April–May (MAM), June–July–August (JJA), September–October–November (SON) and December–January–February (DJF). The potential predictability (slow-to-total) of the soil moisture above 1 m is high, with lowest value of 0.76 in JJA and highest value of 0.94 in DJF. The spatial distribution of the potential predictability comprises a northwest–southeast gradient, with a minimum center over East China and a maximum center over the northwest. The most important source of predictability is from the soil moisture persistence, which generally accounts for more than 50 % of the variability in soil moisture. The SSTs in the Indian Ocean, the North Atlantic and the eastern tropical Pacific Oceans are also identified as important sources of variability in the soil moisture, during MAM, JJA and SON/DJF, respectively. In addition, prolonged linear trends in each season are an important source. Using the slow principal component time series as predictands, a statistical scheme for the seasonal forecasting of soil moisture across China is developed. The prediction skills, in terms of the percentage of explained variance for the verification period (1992–2008), are 59, 51, 62 and 77 % during MAM–DJF, respectively. This is considerably higher than a normal grid prediction scheme. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53531
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P. O. Box 9804, Beijing, China; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States; The Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Ying K.,Zhao T.,Zheng X.,et al. Predictable signals in seasonal mean soil moisture simulated with observation-based atmospheric forcing over China[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-07-08)