globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2917-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84948689938
论文题名:
Clusters of interannual sea ice variability in the northern hemisphere
作者: Fučkar N.S.; Guemas V.; Johnson N.C.; Massonnet F.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期:2017-05-06
起始页码: 1527
结束页码: 1543
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic sea ice ; Climate change ; GCM reconstruction ; Interannual variability ; K-means cluster analysis
英文摘要: We determine robust modes of the northern hemisphere (NH) sea ice variability on interannual timescales disentangled from the long-term climate change. This study focuses on sea ice thickness (SIT), reconstructed with an ocean–sea-ice general circulation model, because SIT has a potential to contain most of the interannual memory and predictability of the NH sea ice system. We use the K-means cluster analysis—one of clustering methods that partition data into groups or clusters based on their distances in the physical space without the typical constraints of other unsupervised learning statistical methods such as the widely-used principal component analysis. To adequately filter out climate change signal in the Arctic from 1958 to 2013 we have to approximate it with a 2nd degree polynomial. Using 2nd degree residuals of SIT leads to robust K-means cluster patterns, i.e. invariant to further increase of the polynomial degree. A set of clustering validity indices yields K = 3 as the optimal number of SIT clusters for all considered months and seasons with strong similarities in their cluster patterns. The associated time series of cluster occurrences exhibit predominant interannual persistence with mean timescale of about 2 years. Compositing analysis of the NH surface climate conditions associated with each cluster indicates that wind forcing seem to be the key factor driving the formation of interannual SIT cluster patterns during the winter. Climate memory in SIT with such interannual persistence could lead to increased predictability of the Artic sea ice cover beyond seasonal timescales. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53575
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Climate Forecasting Unit, Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Doctora Trueta 203, 3a, Barcelona, Spain; Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques/Groupe d’Etude de l’Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Cooperative Institute for Climate Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona, Spain; Instituciò Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Fučkar N.S.,Guemas V.,Johnson N.C.,et al. Clusters of interannual sea ice variability in the northern hemisphere[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-05-06)
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