globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2886-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945582359
论文题名:
Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world
作者: Krishnan R.; Sabin T.P.; Vellore R.; Mujumdar M.; Sanjay J.; Goswami B.N.; Hourdin F.; Dufresne J.-L.; Terray P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期:2017-03-04
起始页码: 1007
结束页码: 1027
语种: 英语
英文关键词: High-resolution model simulations ; Recent trends in the South Asian Monsoon ; Regional hydroclimatic response to climate change
英文摘要: Rising propensity of precipitation extremes and concomitant decline of summer-monsoon rains are amongst the most distinctive hydroclimatic signals that have emerged over South Asia since 1950s. A clear understanding of the underlying causes driving these monsoon hydroclimatic signals has remained elusive. Using a state-of-the-art global climate model with high-resolution zooming over South Asia, we demonstrate that a juxtaposition of regional land-use changes, anthropogenic-aerosol forcing and the rapid warming signal of the equatorial Indian Ocean is crucial to produce the observed monsoon weakening in recent decades. Our findings also show that this monsoonal weakening significantly enhances occurrence of localized intense precipitation events, as compared to the global-warming response. A 21st century climate projection using the same high-resolution model indicates persistent decrease of monsoonal rains and prolongation of soil drying. Critical value-additions from this study include (1) realistic simulation of the mean and long-term historical trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall (2) robust attributions of changes in moderate and heavy precipitation events over Central India (3) a 21st century projection of drying trend of the South Asian monsoon. The present findings have profound bearing on the regional water-security, which is already under severe hydrological-stress. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53591
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India; Indian Institute of Science, Education and Research (IISER), Pune, India; Laboratoire Meteorologie Dynamique, (LMD/IPSL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC)/ENS/Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France; LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, 4 Place Jussieu, Paris, France; Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences, IISc-NIO-IITM–IRD Joint International Laboratory, IITM, Pune, India

Recommended Citation:
Krishnan R.,Sabin T.P.,Vellore R.,et al. Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-03-04)
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