DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2825-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940882671
论文题名: Multilevel vector autoregressive prediction of sea surface temperature in the North Tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea
作者: Lee D.E. ; Chapman D. ; Henderson N. ; Chen C. ; Cane M.A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 95
结束页码: 106
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region
; Data-driven model
; Sea surface temperature prediction
英文摘要: We use a multilevel vector autoregressive model (VAR-L), to forecast sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). VAR-L is a linear regression model using global SSTA data from L prior months as predictors. In hindcasts for the recent 30 years, the multilevel VAR-L outperforms a state-of-the-art dynamic forecast model, as well as the commonly used linear inverse model (LIM). The multilevel VAR-L model shows skill in 6–12 month forecasts, with its greatest skill in the months of the active hurricane season. The optimized model for the best long-range skill score in the MDR, chosen by a cross-validation procedure, has 12 time levels and 12 empirical orthogonal function modes. We investigate the optimal initial conditions for MDR SSTA prediction using a generalized singular vector decomposition of the propagation matrix. We find that the added temporal degrees of freedom for the predictands in VAR12 as compared with a LIM model, which allow the model to capture both the local wind–evaporation–SST feedback in the Tropical Atlantic and the impact on the Atlantic of an improved medium-range ENSO forecast, elevate the long-range forecast skill in the MDR. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53625
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lee D.E.,Chapman D.,Henderson N.,et al. Multilevel vector autoregressive prediction of sea surface temperature in the North Tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-01-02)