DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2849-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84944552828
论文题名: Peak-summer East Asian rainfall predictability and prediction part II: extratropical East Asia
作者: Yim S.-Y. ; Wang B. ; Xing W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 15
结束页码: 30
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Dynamical climate prediction
; East Asian summer monsoon
; Monsoon predictability
; Monsoon rainfall prediction
; Physical–empirical prediction
; Predictable mode analysis
英文摘要: The part II of the present study focuses on northern East Asia (NEA: 26°N–50°N, 100°–140°E), exploring the source and limit of the predictability of the peak summer (July–August) rainfall. Prediction of NEA peak summer rainfall is extremely challenging because of the exposure of the NEA to midlatitude influence. By examining four coupled climate models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) hindcast during 1979–2010, we found that the domain-averaged MME temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill is only 0.13. It is unclear whether the dynamical models’ poor skills are due to limited predictability of the peak-summer NEA rainfall. In the present study we attempted to address this issue by applying predictable mode analysis method using 35-year observations (1979–2013). Four empirical orthogonal modes of variability and associated major potential sources of variability are identified: (a) an equatorial western Pacific (EWP)-NEA teleconnection driven by EWP sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, (b) a western Pacific subtropical high and Indo-Pacific dipole SST feedback mode, (c) a central Pacific-El Nino-Southern Oscillation mode, and (d) a Eurasian wave train pattern. Physically meaningful predictors for each principal component (PC) were selected based on analysis of the lead–lag correlations with the persistent and tendency fields of SST and sea-level pressure from March to June. A suite of physical–empirical (P–E) models is established to predict the four leading PCs. The peak summer rainfall anomaly pattern is then objectively predicted by using the predicted PCs and the corresponding observed spatial patterns. A 35-year cross-validated hindcast over the NEA yields a domain-averaged TCC skill of 0.36, which is significantly higher than the MME dynamical hindcast (0.13). The estimated maximum potential attainable TCC skill averaged over the entire domain is around 0.61, suggesting that the current dynamical prediction models may have large rooms to improve. Limitations and future work are also discussed. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53654
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Recommended Citation:
Yim S.-Y.,Wang B.,Xing W.. Peak-summer East Asian rainfall predictability and prediction part II: extratropical East Asia[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-01-02)