DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2385-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84911366965
论文题名: Peak-summer East Asian rainfall predictability and prediction part I: Southeast Asia
作者: Xing W. ; Wang B. ; Yim S.-Y.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-01-02 语种: 英语
英文关键词: East Asian monsoon
; Monsoon predictability
; Monsoon rainfall prediction
; Physical-empirical model
; Predictable mode analysis
英文摘要: The interannual variation of East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall exhibits considerable differences between early summer [May–June (MJ)] and peak summer [July–August (JA)]. The present study focuses on peak summer. During JA, the mean ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical High (WPSH) divides EASM domain into two sub-domains: the tropical EA (5°N–26.5°N) and subtropical-extratropical EA (26.5°N–50°N). Since the major variability patterns in the two sub-domains and their origins are substantially different, the Part I of this study concentrates on the tropical EA or Southeast Asia (SEA). We apply the predictable mode analysis approach to explore the predictability and prediction of the SEA peak summer rainfall. Four principal modes of interannual rainfall variability during 1979–2013 are identified by EOF analysis: (1) the WPSH-dipole sea surface temperature (SST) feedback mode in the Northern Indo-western Pacific warm pool associated with the decay of eastern Pacific El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), (2) the central Pacific-ENSO mode, (3) the Maritime continent SST-Australian High coupled mode, which is sustained by a positive feedback between anomalous Australian high and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over Indian Ocean, and (4) the ENSO developing mode. Based on understanding of the sources of the predictability for each mode, a set of physics-based empirical (P-E) models is established for prediction of the first four leading principal components (PCs). All predictors are selected from either persistent atmospheric lower boundary anomalies from March to June or the tendency from spring to early summer. We show that these four modes can be predicted reasonably well by the P-E models, thus they are identified as the predictable modes. Using the predicted PCs and the corresponding observed spatial patterns, we have made a 35-year cross-validated hindcast, setting up a bench mark for dynamic models’ predictions. The P-E hindcast prediction skill represented by domain-averaged temporal correlation coefficient is 0.44, which is twice higher than the skill of the current dynamical hindcast, suggesting that the dynamical models have large rooms to improve. The maximum potential attainable prediction skills for the peak summer SEA rainfall is also estimated and discussed by using the PMA. High predictability regions are found over several climatological rainfall centers like Indo-China peninsula, southern coast of China, southeastern SCS, and Philippine Sea. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53658
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Xing W.,Wang B.,Yim S.-Y.. Peak-summer East Asian rainfall predictability and prediction part I: Southeast Asia[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-01-02)