DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2710-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84931360489
论文题名: Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
作者: Osman M. ; Vera C.S. ; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2423
结束页码: 2434
语种: 英语
英文关键词: El niño southern oscillation
; Geopotential heights
; Seasonal predictability
; Southern hemisphere
英文摘要: An assessment of the predictability and prediction skill of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere was done. The analysis is based on seasonal forecasts of geopotential heights at 200, 500 and 850 hPa, for austral summer and winter from 11 models participating in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. It is found that predictability (signal-to-variance ratio) and prediction skill (anomaly correlation) in the tropics is higher than in the extratropics and is also higher in summer than in winter. Both predictability and skill are higher at high than at low altitudes. Modest values of predictability and skill are found at polar latitudes in the Bellinghausen-Amundsen Seas. The analysis of the changes in predictability and prediction skill in ENSO events reveals that both are slightly higher in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years than in all years, while the spatial patterns of maxima and minima remain unchanged. Changes in signal-to-noise ratio observed are mainly due to signal changes rather than changes in noise. Composites of geopotential heights anomalies for El Niño and La Niña years are in agreement with observations. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53680
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA, DCAO/FCEN, UMIIFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Institucio Catalana de Recerca i EstudisAvançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain; Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain; Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), Barcelona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Osman M.,Vera C.S.,Doblas-Reyes F.J.. Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-07-08)