DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2699-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84931090215
论文题名: Simulated modes of inter‑decadal predictability in sea surface temperature
作者: Frederiksen C.S. ; Zheng X. ; Grainger S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2231
结束页码: 2245
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Inter-decadal noise
; Inter-decadal predictability
; Inter-decadal variability
; Modes
; Potential predictability
英文摘要: A methodology is proposed that allows an estimate of the contribution of decadal noise to the interdecadal variability of climate variables. By removing this decadal noise, or unpredictable decadal variability, from the total inter-decadal variability, the residual variability is more likely to be associated with potentially predictable slow processes. This residual variability may be considered to be potentially predictable. We apply the method to sea surface temperature from a 1000 year (850-1850 AD) experiment with the CCSM4 model forced by solar variations, volcanic aerosols, orbital forcings, land use and greenhouse gas concentrations. Our analysis shows large potential SST inter-decadal predictability in the extratropical regions in both hemispheres, as well as in the subtropical/tropical Indian Ocean, the western Pacific and the Atlantic. In the tropical eastern Pacific, inter-decadal variability is dominated by unpredictable decadal noise. The two leading unpredictable modes of inter-decadal variability have features related to the two leading ENSO modes, and the PDO. The four leading potentially predictable modes of inter-decadal variability are shown to be related to the external forcing, the IPO, inter-hemispheric SST fluctuations and the AMO, and decadal/multi-decadal AO/NAO variability. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53683
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Collaboration for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; College for Global Changes and Earth System Study, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Key Laboratory of Regional Climate ‑ Environment Research for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Frederiksen C.S.,Zheng X.,Grainger S.. Simulated modes of inter‑decadal predictability in sea surface temperature[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-07-08)