DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2791-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939168670
论文题名: How will climate change affect explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere?
作者: Seiler C. ; Zwiers F.W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 3633
结束页码: 3644
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; CMIP5 climate models
; Explosive cyclones
英文摘要: Explosive cyclones are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems generating severe wind speeds and heavy precipitation primarily in coastal and marine environments. This study presents the first analysis on how explosive cyclones respond to climate change in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere. An objective-feature tracking algorithm is used to identify and track cyclones from 23 CMIP5 climate models for the recent past (1981–1999) and future (2081–2099). Explosive cyclones are projected to shift northwards by about 2. 2 ∘ latitude on average in the northern Pacific, with fewer and weaker events south of 45 ∘N , and more frequent and stronger events north of this latitude. This shift is correlated with a poleward shift of the jet stream in the inter-model spread ($$R=0.56$$R= 0.56). In the Atlantic, the total number of explosive cyclones is projected to decrease by about 17 % when averaging across models, with the largest changes occurring along North America’s East Coast. This reduction is correlated with a decline in the lower-tropospheric Eady growth rate (R= 0.51), and is stronger for models with smaller frequency biases (R= - 0.65). The same region is also projected to experience a small intensification of explosive cyclones, with larger vorticity values for models that predict stronger increases in the speed of the jet stream (R= 0.58). This strengthening of the jet stream is correlated with an enhanced sea surface temperature gradient in the North Atlantic (R= - 0.63). The inverse relationship between model bias and projection, and the role of model resolution are discussed. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53704
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, University House 1, PO Box 1700 Stn CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Seiler C.,Zwiers F.W.. How will climate change affect explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere?[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-11-12)