DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940847833
论文题名: Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections
作者: Hawkins E. ; Smith R.S. ; Gregory J.M. ; Stainforth D.A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 3807
结束页码: 3819
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ensembles
; Initial conditions
; Projections
; Uncertainty
英文摘要: Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate. Here we use large idealised initial condition ensembles of the FAMOUS global climate model with a 1 %/year compound increase in CO 2 levels to quantify the range of future temperatures in model-based projections. These simulations explore the role of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and are the largest such ensembles to date. Short-term simulated trends in global temperature are diverse, and cooling periods are more likely to be followed by larger warming rates. The spatial pattern of near-term temperature change varies considerably, but the proportion of the surface showing a warming is more consistent. In addition, ensemble spread in inter-annual temperature declines as the climate warms, especially in the North Atlantic. Over Europe, atmospheric initial condition uncertainty can, for certain ocean initial conditions, lead to 20 year trends in winter and summer in which every location can exhibit either strong cooling or rapid warming. However, the details of the distribution are highly sensitive to the ocean initial condition chosen and particularly the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. On longer timescales, the warming signal becomes more clear and consistent amongst different initial condition ensembles. An ensemble using a range of different oceanic initial conditions produces a larger spread in temperature trends than ensembles using a single ocean initial condition for all lead times. This highlights the potential benefits from initialising climate predictions from ocean states informed by observations. These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in near-term regional climate is to be adequately quantified. © 2015, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53725
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Grantham Institute, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Hawkins E.,Smith R.S.,Gregory J.M.,et al. Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-11-12)