globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2761-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84937906502
论文题名:
Causality of global warming seen from observations: a scale analysis of driving force of the surface air temperature time series in the Northern Hemisphere
作者: Yang P.; Wang G.; Zhang F.; Zhou X.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期:2017-09-10
起始页码: 3197
结束页码: 3204
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Causality ; Global warming ; Non-stationary system ; SFA ; Time series analysis
英文摘要: By using the slow feature analysis, we reconstructed the driving force for an observed monthly surface air temperature anomaly time series in the northern hemisphere. Wavelet transformation technique was then used to analyze the scale structure of the derived driving force and its causal relationship with global warming. Results showed that the driving force for the analyzed temperature climate system included two independent degrees of freedom which respectively represented the effects of 22-year solar cycle and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the climate. More importantly, the driving force is modulated in amplitude by signals with much longer time periods. The modulation controls the energy input to the climate system and its effect on the global warming is decisive. In addition, through analyzing phase transitions from zero to extremes of the modulating signals, we provide a projection for the future trend of the surface air temperature. In specific, in the next 45–65 years, the driving force will continue to rise which will drive the air temperature even warmer. This is a long term natural trend determined by the modulating amplitude signals, but not directly related to human activity. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53737
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: LAGEO, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Yang P.,Wang G.,Zhang F.,et al. Causality of global warming seen from observations: a scale analysis of driving force of the surface air temperature time series in the Northern Hemisphere[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-09-10)
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