DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2749-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84966429091
论文题名: North American rainfall and temperature prediction response to the diversity of ENSO
作者: Infanti J.M. ; Kirtman B.P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 3007
结束页码: 3023
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate prediction
; El Niño
; ENSO diversity
; North America
; Teleconnections
英文摘要: Research has shown that there is significant diversity in the location of the maximum sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In one extreme, warm SSTA peak near the South American coast (often referred to as Eastern Pacific of EP El Niño), and at the other extreme, warm SSTA peak in the central Pacific (Central Pacific or CP El Niño). Due to the differing tropical Pacific SSTA and precipitation structure, there are differing extratropical responses, particularly over North America. Recent work involving the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) system for intra-seasonal to inter-annual prediction on prediction of the differences between El Niño events found excess warming in the eastern Pacific during CP El Niño events. This manuscript investigates the ensemble and observational agreement of the NMME system when forecasting the North American response to the diversity of ENSO, focusing on regional land-based 2-meter temperature and precipitation. NMME forecasts of North American precipitation and T2m agree with observations more often during EP events. Ensemble agreement of NMME forecasts is regional. For instance, ensemble agreement in Southeast North America demonstrates a strong connection to NINO3 precipitation and SSTA amplitude during warm ENSO events. Ensemble agreement in Northwest North America demonstrates a weak connection to NINO4 precipitation and SSTA amplitude during warm ENSO events. Still other regions do not show a strong connection between ensemble agreement and strength of warm ENSO events. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53748
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Infanti J.M.,Kirtman B.P.. North American rainfall and temperature prediction response to the diversity of ENSO[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-09-10)