DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2737-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84936791537
论文题名: CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes
作者: Li L. ; Li W. ; Ballard T. ; Sun G. ; Jeuland M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2883
结束页码: 2895
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change impact
; CMIP5 model simulations
; Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation
; North Atlantic subtropical high
英文摘要: Kiremt-season (June–September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution <2°) can more accurately simulate precipitation, most likely due to their ability to capture precipitation induced by topography. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, these high-resolution models project an increase in precipitation over central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, but a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of the country. Such a dipole pattern is attributable to the intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in a warmer climate, which influences Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation mainly by modulating atmospheric vertical motion. Diagnosis of the omega equation demonstrates that an intensified NASH increases (decreases) the advection of warm air and positive vorticity into the central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley (southern part of the country), enhancing upward motion over the northern Rift Valley but decreasing elsewhere. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the high-resolution models project an intensification of the NASH by 15 (3 × 105 m2 s−2) geopotential meters (stream function) at the 850-hPa level, contributing to the projected precipitation change over Ethiopia. The influence of the NASH on Kiremt-season precipitation becomes more evident in the future due to the offsetting effects of two other major circulation systems: the East African Low-level Jet (EALLJ) and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). The high-resolution models project a strengthening of the EALLJ, but a weakening of the TEJ. Future changes in the EALLJ and TEJ will drive this precipitation system in opposite directions, leading to small or no net changes in precipitation in Ethiopia. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53762
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, 321C Old Chemistry Bldg, P.O. Box 90227, Durham, NC, United States; Environmental Sciences, Trinity College of Arts and Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States; Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, NC, United States; Sanford School of Public Policy and Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States; Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Li L.,Li W.,Ballard T.,et al. CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-09-10)